For most of the last year the question was how quickly the Bank of England would cut. That is no longer the question.
The Bank held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 30 July, but the vote was 6 to 3, and all three of those dissenting votes were for a rise to 4%, not a cut. Inflation has since climbed back to around 2.9%, which is above the Bank's 2% target rather than drifting towards it.
The next decision lands on Thursday 17 September, with August's inflation figures published the morning before. So the Committee votes with fresh numbers in hand.
Here is what that actually means if you have a mortgage, or you are about to get one.
The direction of travel has changed
Earlier this year the reasonable expectation was one more cut before the end of 2026. That is a much less safe assumption now.
Nothing has gone wrong. Rates have not jumped. But the balance inside the Committee has shifted from "when do we cut again" to "have we cut enough already". Three members thinking rates should be higher is not a detail, it is a direction.
The honest position is that nobody knows what happens on the 17th, and anyone telling you they do is guessing. What you can say is that the odds of cheap money returning quickly have got longer.
What it means for fixed rates
Very little in the short term, which is the point people often miss.
Fixed rates are not set by today's base rate. They are set by what lenders expect rates to do over the next few years, and those expectations had already absorbed a September hold long before the meeting. That is why fixed pricing has been so flat lately rather than moving in steps.
What the split does change is the shape of the risk. If you have been waiting for fixed rates to fall meaningfully before committing, you are now waiting on something the market is no longer confident about.
What it means if you are on a tracker
Your rate stays exactly where it is unless the Bank moves, so a hold means no change to your payments.
Tracker borrowers have had a good run since the cuts through 2025. The thing worth thinking about now is the other direction. A tracker is a bet that rates fall or hold. Three votes for a rise is the first real sign in a while that the bet could go the other way, and it is worth knowing what a 0.25% increase would do to your monthly payment before it happens rather than after.
What it means if your deal ends this year
This is the group it matters most to, and it is a big group.
If your fixed rate ends in the next six to nine months, you can usually secure a new deal several months ahead and still switch if something better appears before it starts. That is not a prediction that rates are about to rise. It is simply that having a rate held for you costs nothing and removes the risk of being caught out.
The plain version
- The Bank is holding, but three of nine members want rates higher
- Inflation at roughly 2.9% is why
- Fixed rates had already priced a hold in, so day to day nothing has moved
- The assumption that cheaper deals are coming is weaker than it was six months ago
- If your deal ends within the next six months, now is a sensible time to look
Rates are only ever part of the picture. What your payments look like depends on your loan size, your equity, your term and your circumstances, and that is a conversation rather than a headline.
If your deal is coming to an end, or you are trying to work out whether to fix and for how long, get in touch and we can go through your own numbers.
Bank Rate and the July vote from the Bank of England. Inflation figures from the Office for National Statistics.
As a mortgage is secured against your home it could be repossessed if you do not keep up the mortgage repayments.